[SMM Analysis] Ferrochrome Production Hits New High Again in November, Expected to Rise Slightly in December

According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in November 2025 increased by 60,200 mt MoM from October, up 7.32%, and was up 24.66% YoY. Currently, most ferrochrome producers primarily focus on fulfilling long-term contract orders. Therefore, although the spot price of high-carbon ferrochrome dropped slightly during the month, long-term contract prices remained at a relatively high level. The Tsingshan Group's November tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome procurement met expectations, holding steady at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), which helped stabilize the ferrochrome market and stimulated active production among producers. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices continued their slow decline, leading to a continuous decrease in ferrochrome smelting costs. Producer profit margins were significant, and operating rates were maintained at a high level. All regions saw varying degrees of production increases, with the main increment coming from the northern Inner Mongolia region. On one hand, production resumed normally after previous maintenance, contributing to the increase; on the other hand, some producers released new capacity and implemented production increases, resulting in a 7.16% MoM production increase from October. In southern regions such as Sichuan and Guangxi, aside from individual producers undergoing technological transformation and maintenance, most producers actively produced before the official arrival of the dry season, leading to a slight rise in production. Furthermore, production cuts and shutdowns of overseas ferrochrome had a significant impact on the sustained growth of domestic ferrochrome production. China's high-carbon ferrochrome imports fell significantly to 139,500 mt in October, down 37.67% MoM; cumulative imports for 2025 reached 2.1929 million mt, a YoY decline of 29%. Under these circumstances, domestic ferrochrome producers ramped up production, effectively filling the emerging supply gap.

Looking ahead to December, ferrochrome production is expected to fluctuate at high levels, with the possibility of a slight further increase. Tsingshan announced its December tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome procurement at 8,395 yuan/mt (50% metal content), significantly better than market expectations of a 300-500 yuan decline, which to some extent stabilized the ferrochrome market. Simultaneously, the decline in chrome ore prices shows no sign of stopping, with spot and futures prices falling in tandem, driving down ferrochrome production costs. Producers maintain good profit margins on long-term contract orders, leading to high production enthusiasm. Additionally, although downstream stainless steel has seen news of production cuts due to the year-end off-season affecting consumption, the actual implementation is expected to be limited. Coupled with the supply gap caused by low import levels of ferrochrome, there is rigid support for the procurement demand for domestic ferrochrome. Southern regions have officially entered the dry season, leading to increased electricity costs, prompting some producers to halt or reduce production. However, considering that new ferrochrome production capacities launched in November are mostly concentrated and will materialize in December, this increment is expected to effectively offset the reductions in the southern regions. Overall ferrochrome production is anticipated to maintain a growing trend.